In 2024, switching jobs may still pose challenges as the labor market shows signs of stabilizing following a less active 2023. Last year saw a lower job quitting and a more challenging job market than the previous period's high activity.
According to Kory Kantenga, a senior economist at LinkedIn, employers are expected to exercise continued caution in hiring. This trend might affect job availability variably across different industries and company sizes. The evolution from the so-called 'Great Resignation' era indicates a shift in the employment landscape as we move into 2024.
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Switching Jobs in 2024: Bracing for a More Competitive Market
Despite a slowdown in job openings in 2023 compared to 2022, the US economy consistently added jobs, including 199,000 in November. The overall unemployment rate remained low with minor fluctuations. Layoffs, particularly noted in the tech sector, were around 1%.
As we move into 2024, the job market is expected to be more competitive, owing to reduced job openings and increased job seekers actively looking for new opportunities, according to economist Kory Kantenga.
Economic forecasts suggest a hiring slowdown into the following year, with growth projections remaining flat until mid-2024 and a recovery anticipated next year, as reported by experts at Morningstar.
Despite these predictions, there's a positive outlook from some sectors. In a recent survey by consulting firm Robert Half, 57% of managers expressed intentions to increase permanent staffing in the first half of 2024.
Emphasizing the current window of opportunity, Morningstar's Caldwell advises those considering a job change or entry into the labor market to do so promptly, cautioning that job opportunities will likely reduce as the overall job market decelerates.
Caldwell notes that while the timing for job transitions isn't as favorable as the previous year, it's still more opportune than it will be in the coming year.
Glassdoor economist Daniel Zhao said in the interview that healthcare, government, and education are areas of the labor market where hiring has been strong and should continue to be.
Zhao also pointed out that people may have transferable skills between different sectors, so job seekers don't have to pigeonhole themselves to their current industry.
However, it might be hard to find the work you want in general. Josh Brenner, the CEO of Hired, said in an as-told-to essay that "employers will be more selective" and target those "who precisely meet their expectations."
But Kantenga still sees work opportunities available, especially outside large companies.
Wage Growth Slows to Pre-Pandemic Levels
As the labor market stabilizes post-pandemic, wage increases return to pre-COVID norms. Many companies offered more significant raises and bonuses during the Great Resignation to retain employees.
However, with the shift in bargaining power back to employers and a decrease in quit rates, significant pandemic-era pay raises are becoming less common.
Indeed, research indicates a slowing wage growth trend. For example, the increase in wages posted on Indeed dropped from 9.3% in January 2022 to 4.2% in October, signaling a return to more traditional wage increases.
Additionally, surveys by Mercer and BambooHR show a trend towards smaller merit increases, and fewer raises overall as companies recalibrate compensation strategies post-pandemic.
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