Elon Musk’s recent warning to Bill Gates not to bet against Tesla has suddenly heightened their public rivalry. Via his tweet on Tuesday, Musk stated that anyone who bets against Tesla, including Gates, is inviting destruction. This audacious claim comes as Musk envisions turning Tesla into a $30 trillion AI powerhouse.
Leaked Messages and Regret
Musk’s refusal to support Gates’ philanthropy for climate change became public in 2022 through leaked messages that depict that it was because of his large short position against Tesla. "Sorry, but I cannot take your philanthropy on climate change seriously when you have a massive short position against Tesla, the company doing the most to solve climate change," he wrote.
It remains unclear if Gates still holds a short position despite regretting his bearish stance on Tesla; however, Musk’s recent warning suggests he thinks that AI and robotics will destroy the remaining shorts. According to Musk; “Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has [its droid] Optimus in volume production, anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated, Even Gates."
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— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 2, 2024
Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus in volume production, anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated. Even Gates.
Tesla's Challenges and Resilience
Despite facing considerable challenges this year, Musk remains highly confident about the future of Tesla. In H1 2021 alone, vehicle sales by Tesla decreased by 6.6% while they continued lagging behind expectations for the much-hyped Cybertruck. Moreover, the ambitious target set by Elon Musk of scaling up EV volumes to 20 million by 2030 has been abandoned by him at least.
Still, resilience is one thing that Musks appears to have exhibited in times of adversity since April this year where he has made moves aimed at supporting its stock price. He has teased about an announcement concerning a new robotaxi model referred to as “CyberCab,” hinted at renewed EV sales growth using affordable new models and assured investors of his commitment to Tesla. As a result, Tesla has gained $100 billion in market cap over the past two days.
Vision for an AI-Driven Future Despite Skeptism
Tesla is not limited to electric vehicles according to Musk’s vision. He foresees a future where Tesla’s prototype Optimus robots become ubiquitous. It is projected that Tesla will manufacture one billion robots per year, targeting a large market share. These are expected to be sold at $20,000 with 50% profit margin thereby generating possibly $1 trillion in annual returns.
But some skeptics point out that Musk's assumptions may be too optimistic compared to worldwide demand forecasts for cars and smartphones. This includes critics like Jim Chanos who says that if this latest forecast by Musk were proven right it would give Tesla the biggest market capitalization on earth equaling almost one third of all GDP globally.
As he steers Tesla towards an AI and robotics dominated future, the financial world is observing Musk closely. Whether Gates accepts or declines Musks bet is still unknown but what is certain is that rivalry between these two tech giants has just begun.
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