The growing rivalry between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is creating a power struggle dubbed as Saudi Arabia's "game of thrones," seeing one of the kingdom's biggest challenges in years.
The 56-year old Mohammed bin Nayef is the king's nephew who acts as the country's interior minister. He is the designated successor. The 30-ish son of King Salman, Mohammed bin Salman, however is seen as an emerging influence in the kingdom. He currently heads the defense ministry.
"It's resulting in some disturbing policies abroad and internally," commented Frederic Wehrey (via News.com.au) of the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
News.com.au, in its report, said that the Saudi Arabia's "game of thrones" scenario began six months ago after King Salman removed from its post Crown Prince Moqren, who was appointed by Abdullah as the country's first deputy crown prince.
"A lot of people see this as a kind of coup... that it's one faction taking power for itself," described Stephane Lacroix of Science Po University in Paris, who is a specialist in Saudi Arabia. Her statement quite confirms that there is a brewing "game of thrones" in Saudi Arabia.
The report added that after Crown Prince Moqren's removal, Mohammed bin Salman was observed to have been "amassing extraordinary power and influence very quickly" to unsettle his rivals. Deputy Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman is reportedly being aggressive in restructuring his position to become irreplaceable, once his father dies. Lacroix added that Mohammed bin Salman is "acting as if he was the heir apparent."
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, on the other hand, is "well-respected and trusted," according to analysts. He has the loyalty of interior ministry forces and most members of the royal family.
Business Insider, however, pointed out in its report that the growing power struggle in Saudi Arabia may hurt the global order when it comes to oil. Oil, being Saudi Arabia's primary source of revenue, clearly has an effect on the country's fiscal and social stability; hence those in power will have the ability to influence policies related to oil production.
And being greatly dependent on oil supply from the Middle East, decisions made by Saudi Arabia's corridors of power will have a "knock-on effect" on the world's advanced economies like the U.S. and the U.K.
"Depending on his path to power, a new monarch might feel the need to quickly generate additional revenue to fund popular infrastructure projects and social welfare programs, as well as boost the overall mood of the populace and the private sector, which depends heavily on government largesse. Market share might therefore take a back seat to maintaining public support in a power shift scenario," the Royal Bank of Canada noted.
